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Table Of Contents

Integer Urea Outlook quarterly deliverables

Each quarter we release the following deliverables. The quarterly briefing slide deck provides a new and comprehensive analysis each quarter, and is accompanied by the regional analyses and project review slide decks which act as reference documents and are updated each quarter where relevant.

1. Quarterly briefing – View ToC for a recent Quarterly Briefing >>

  • Executive summary
  • Supply, demand, trade and pricing
  • Price forecast

 

2. Regional analyses – View ToC for a recent Quarterly Regional Analyses >>

Regions:

  • China
  • South Asia
  • North America
  • Middle East
  • Former Soviet Union
  • SE Asia & Oceania
  • South America
  • Europe
  • Africa

3. Project review – View ToC for a recent Quarterly Project Review >>

  • Project-by-project slides

 

4. Supporting Excel Datasets – View ToC for recent Quarterly Excel Files >>

  • Supply, demand, trade appendices
  • Trade matrix
  • Capacity database   Integer

 

 

1. Sample table of contents Q3 2017 – Quarterly Briefing

Please see below the table of contents for the latest quarterly release of the Integer Urea 10-Year Outlook Service – quarterly briefing.

1. Executive summary

  • Highlights and changes this quarter
  • Key theme analysis:
    • South Asian demand
    • Increases to capacity forecast
    • China’s loss of competitiveness
    • Rest of world demand growth
    • Timing of market balancing process

2. Special focus: Chinese closures

  • Confirmed Chinese capacity closures
  • Varying plant closure rates to model utilisation scenarios

3. Demand forecast

  • Demand forecast drivers
  • Regional growth assumptions
  • Year-on-year consumption forecast

4. Supply forecast

  • Supply forecast drivers
  • Capacity assessment
    • Base-case capacity forecast
    • Firm and probable plants to 2021
    • Pro-rated incremental capacity
  • Urea export cost curve

5. Forecasting the S/D balance

  • Annual S/D balance to 2022
  • Bull and bear factors by year to 2022
  • Inclusion of probably capacity in forecast

6. Prices

  • Recent urea price developments
  • 12-month urea price forecast
  • 3-month ahead regional market drivers
  • Long-term price forecast to 2030
  • Regional benchmark price forecasts

7. Short-run marginal cost (SRMC)

  • Underlying feedstock costs: Chinese coal
  • Calculating the SRMC base year
  • Marginal urea producer cost profile
  • Forecasting the SRMC – feedstock costs
  • Forecasting the SRMC – other costs

8. Long-run marginal cost (LRMC)

  • Calculating the LRMC
  • Modelling plants for the LRMC base year
  • Selecting regions for Integer’s LRlating the base year
  • Black Sea LRMC

Go back to top >>

 

2. Sample table of contents Q3 2017 – Regional Analyses

Please see below the table of contents for the latest quarterly release of the Integer Urea 10-Year Outlook Service – regional analyses.

For each of the regions listed in the image below (click to enlarge),
we present the following:

1. Overview

  • Key regional themes
  • Region in numbers<p style="text-align: center;"><em>(click to enlarge)</em></p>
  • Supply and demand overview

2. Demand fundamentals

  • Local demand factors
  • Apparent consumption forecast

3. Supply fundamentals

  • Capacity forecast
  • Project profiles

4. Regional balance

  • Regional contribution to global S/D balance to 2022
  • Bull and bear factors to 2022
  • Trade developments

Go back to top >>

 

3. Sample table of contents Q3 2017 – Project Review

Please see below the table of contents for the latest quarterly release of the Integer Urea 10-Year Outlook Service – project review.

For each of the projects included in our base case capacity forecast, and key projects in our probably forecast, we present the following:

  • Latest project updates and major milestones
    • Overview and current status
    • Integer view on prospects and start up timing
    • Daily capacity, operating rate and pro-rated capacity
  • Project risks and uncertainties
    • Capacity forecast risk analysis
    • Likelihood of risks
  • Production cost breakdown and cost curve positioning
    • Project positioning on urea export cost curve
    • Itemised cost analysis including cash and corporate estimates
  • Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis for more speculative projects
    • High-level DCF analysis
    • Input assumptions and resulting net present value (NPV)

Project review sample images (click to enlarge)

Go back to top >>

 

4. Sample table of contents Q3 2017 – Excel Files

Please see below the table of contents for the latest quarterly release of the Integer Urea 10-Year Outlook Service – excel files.

Supply, demand, trade appendices

  • This data file includes country-by-country history and forecasts to 2022 of capacity, production, imports, exports and consumption.
  • Includes flat data and pivot tables to allow user customisation, sorting and filtering.

Sample view: East Asia (Click to englarge) >>

 
Urea trade matrix

  • This data file presents a country-by-country urea trade matrix for 2016 showing country of origin and destination and representing total traded volume in 2016.
  • Includes flat data and pivot tables to allow user customisation, sorting and filtering.

Sample view: A-Z (Click to englarge) >>

 
Capacity database

  • This data file includes plant-level urea capacity from 2000 to 2022, including our base case forecast of firm capacity additions.
  • Includes flat data and pivot tables to allow user customisation, sorting and filtering.

Sample view: North America (Click to englarge) >>

 

Go back to top >>