Methodology - Integer
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Methodology

Integer Research is an industry leader in the fertilizer sector, combining our technical knowledge of fertilizer production with high level analysis of market, economic and company financial data. Our experience in project assessment, including extensive contact with engineering and technology contractors, is key to our work.

We have developed an extensive database incorporating Potash operational data and, crucially, financial data for all major potash producers around the world.

Integer Research’s analysts calculate production costs and achieved selling prices for producers, providing a true reflection of a company’s profit margins and of the industry as a whole. Production and traded volume data measured at a country level, is combined with our cost, price and margin data at a producer level, building up to a potash supply and margin curve.

Integer’s competitive methodology includes our extensive technical experience and familiarity with all types of major potash mines across the world, including their typical operating efficiencies. Combining technical competence with financial knowledge, we also uncover key technical operating parameters from the potash producers financial results to cross examine their competiveness with this unique, top down approach.

Forecasting Techniques

Integer’s analysts explore how the Potash industry will develop in the future using an understanding of the future supply/demand balance. We analyse long term demand trends, taking into account demand volatility, crop price developments and agricultural markets.Global potash market scenarios are then forecast, based primarily on different supply scenarios, with a review of what planned capacity expansions are likely to succeed.

The price threshold at which we are likely to see potash investment stimulated – the incentive price – is analyzed using discounted cash flow modelling. Finally, the incentive price and production cost analysis are used to calibrate our Potash price forecast.

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