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Key Features

Please see the key features for The Potash Market Service below, if you would like to request a demo of this product or would like more information please click on the icon at the end of the page.

Cost curves analysis

Our cost curve analysis gives insight into why margins vary globally and between companies. We combine financial analysis with technical expertise to estimate production costs for MOP and SOP producers to produce a full industry cost curve.

Capital costs, investment and expansions

We track over 180 brownfield and greenfield MOP and SOP projects globally, and analyse the project economics in depth for the major projects. Each project is analysed by:

  • Mine capacity
  • Capital cost
  • Operating cost
  • Type (conventional, solution, evaporation)
  • Status of project
  • Projected completion date
  • Size and grade of resource (measured, indicated and inferred)

Supply and price forecasts

Our potash price forecast, to 2025, incorporates three scenarios based on the possible ways that potash capacity could grow.

  • It is based on our projected industry utilisation rates and our greenfield development incentive pricing model.
  • We take into account the structure of the industry and the potential for supply management.
  • We explain how the industry will develop depending on which projects proceed to production, such as BHP Billiton’s Jansen mine as well as other greenfield projects.

Demand forecasts

Our potash demand forecast draws on the crop level, country-by-country demand analysis used in Integer’s ground-breaking Long Term Fertilizer Demand Study.

We use crop production and fertilizer usage data for major consuming countries to provide a nuanced country-level picture of how potash demand is expected to grow.

It is supported by highly detailed and specialised analysis of the factors underlying potash demand. We provide a varied and detailed picture of how potash demand is expected to grow in major consuming countries, including Brazil, China, India, South East Asia, North America and Europe.

SOP: Focus Report and Dataset

  • Focus Report: We provide detailed SOP coverage in a focus report devoted entirely to this market. The report covers SOP
    producer costs and provides an industry cost curve. The report addresses the reasons behind the recent SOP price premium increase and forecasts how this might change in the future.
  • Dataset: Comprehensive SOP dataset including capacity, production, demand and price forecasts and producer data

Quarterly Analysis and Spotlight Reports

Key sections of the service are updated on a quarterly basis, ensuring subscribers receive timely and prompt analysis of significant developments in the potash market. We deliver quarterly analysis of the latest issues, and we also update key elements of the service such as cost curves and forecasts.

In addition, each quarter subscribers receive one Spotlight Report:

  • Spotlight Report I: The SOP market
  • Spotlight Report II: Potash volumes, costs and profits
  • Spotlight Report III: Potash demand
  • Spotlight Report IV: Potash capacity expansions & forecasts

Our quarterly analysis provides executives with a quick and accessible overview of the most pertinent issues in the MOP and SOP markets, and a high-level summary of the key findings of the Spotlight Reports.

Quarterly Industry Data

The Potash Market Service provides comprehensive quarterly data, which forms an essential resource and research tool that can be easily incorporated into your strategic planning.

Quarterly Potash Dataset
The potash dataset includes all of the supporting data from the service:

  • Production (by company and country), and capacity demand
  • Production costs, margins and average selling prices
  • Potash forecasts – supply, demand and prices to 2025
  • Producer data for all products in KCl or equivalent terms

Quarterly Potash Investment DatabaseL
Key information and supporting data outlining company investment plans on over 180 greenfield and brownfield potash projects.

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