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TOC & Figures/Tables

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Quarterly Industry Analysis

Index – Quarterly Industry Analysis

  1. Recent market developments

Price developments

Underlying costs

Unit costs and margins

Volumes

  1. Key industry questions

How has currency depreciation affected the global nitrogen industry?

What is the true nature of India’s largescale urea investment plan?

How might the global nitrogen market be affected if the US increases interest rates?

  1. Quarterly industry financials

Summary quarterly financials

China

Russian & Ukraine

North America

India & Pakistan

Europe, Middle East & Africa

  1. Nitrogen price forecasts

Price forecast assumptions and methodology

Nitrogen price forecasts, 2015-2030

  1. Project developments

Spotlight Report: Industry Financials

Index – spotlight report: industrial financials

  1. Global developments

Revenue

Gross profit

Cost of sales

Profitability

  1. Regional developments

North America

China

Europe

Russia & Ukraine

Middle East & North Africa

India

Pakistan

Southeast Asia & Oceania

  1. Appendix: Nitrogen financials availability by company

Main Data File – Nov 2015

General Notes

 Ammonia prices

Urea prices

AN and nitrates prices

Crop prices

Energy prices

Ammonia unit margins

Urea unit margins

Quarterly financials

Floor price forecasts

 

Projects Data File

Nitrogen projects database

Spotlight Report I Data File

General Notes

Global nitrogen revenues

Global nitrogen cost of sales

Global nitrogen gross profits

Global nitrogen gross margin %

 

List of Figures


Quarterly Industry Analysis

Figure 1 Global nitrogen prices are influenced by the balance between product supply and demand

Figure 2 Black Sea nitrogen prices, January 2008 – January 2016 (US$/tonne)

Figure 3 Global ammonia prices, January 2008 – October 2015 (US$/tonne)

Figure 4 Global urea prices, January 2008 – January 2016 (US$/tonne)

Figure 5 Global urea prices, January 2008 – October 2015 (US$/tonne)

Figure 6 US crop prices, January 2008 – October 2015 (US$/tonne)

Figure 7 European gas prices, January 2008 – January 2016 (US$/MMBtu)

Figure 8 Chinese anthracite coal prices, January 2012 – October 2015 (US$/MMBtu)

Figure 9 US oil and gas prices, January 2008 – January 2016 (US$/MMBtu)

Figure 10 European oil and gas prices, January2008 – January 2016 (US$/MMBtu)

Figure 11 Japanese import gas prices, September 2014 – August 2015 (US$/MMBtu)

Figure 12 Typical ammonia ex-works cost per tonne (US$/tonne)

Figure 13 Typical ammonia gross margin per tonne, January 2012 – July 2015 (US$/tonne)

Figure 14 Typical urea ex-works cost per tonne (US$/tonne)

Figure 15 Typical urea gross margin per tonne, January 2012 – July 2015 (US$/tonne)

Figure 16 Global ammonia production, Q1 2014 – Q2 2015 (Million tonnes)

Figure 17 Global ammonia production, H1 2014 and H1 2015 (Million tonnes)

Figure 18 Global ammonia production, H1 2015 vs H1 2014 (Million tonnes)

Figure 19 Urea production, Q1 2014 – Q2 2015 (Million tonnes)

Figure 20 Global urea production, H1 2014 and H1 2015 (Million tonnes)

Figure 21 Global urea production, H1 2015 vs H1 2014 (Million tonnes)

Figure 22 Chinese currency and energy prices, January 2012 – January 2016 (US$/MMBtu)

Figure 23 Russian currency and energy prices, January 2012 – January 2016 (US$/MMBtu)

Figure 24 CF Industries and EuroChem nitrogen segment revenues, 2010 – 2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 25 Typical urea gross margin per tonne, January 2012 – July 2015 (US$/tonne)

Figure 26 Indian urea production and imports

Figure 27 US interest and oil prices, 2009 – 2016 (US$/bbl)

Figure 28 Sample nitrogen revenues, Q1 2012 – Q2 2015 (US$ billion)

Figure 29 Sample nitrogen gross profits, Q1 2012 – Q2 2015 (US$ billion)

Figure 30 Jianfeng Chemical urea segment financials, 2008 – 2014 (US$ million)

Figure 31 Jianfeng Chemical company financials, Q2 2013 – Q2 2015(US$ million)

Figure 32 Hubei Yihua urea segment financials, 2008 – 2014 (US$ million)

Figure 33 Hubei Yihua company financials, Q2 2013 – Q2 2015 (US$ million)

Figure 34 Acron company financials, Q1 2012 – Q2 2015 (US$ millions)

Figure 35 EuroChem nitrogen segment financial results (US$ million)

Figure 36 EuroChem nitrogen sales volume, Q2 2012 – Q2 2015 (000 tonnes)

Figure 37 CF Industries nitrogen segment financial results, Q1 2012 – Q2 2015 (US$ billion)

Figure 38 CF Industries nitrogen sales volume, Q2 2012 – Q2 2015 (000 tonnes N)

Figure 39 PotashCorp nitrogen segment financials, Q1 2012 – Q2 2015 (US$ billion)

Figure 40 PotashCorp nitrogen sales volume, Q1 2012 – Q2 2015 (Million tonnes)

Figure 41 Agrium nitrogen segment financials, Q4 2011 – Q2 2015 (Agrium nitrogen sales volumes)

Figure 42 NFL urea segment financials, FQ1 2013 – FQ1 2016 (US$ million)

Figure 42 Tata fertilizer segment financials, FQ1 2013 – FQ1 2016 (US$ million)

Figure 43 FFC company financials, Q2 2011 – Q2 2015 (US$ million)

Figure 44 Fatima financials, Q1 2012 – Q2 2015 (US$ billion)

Figure 45 Fatima sales volume, Q1 2012 – Q2 2015 (000 tonnes)

Figure 46 Yara Upstream segment financials, Q1 2012 – Q2 2015 (US$ billion)

Figure 47 Grupa Azoty fertilizer segment financials, Q3 2011 – Q2 2015 (US$ million)

Figure 48 SAFCO nitrogen segment financials, Q2 2011 – Q2 2015 (US$ million)

Figure 49 Global energy price developments, January 2012 – January 2016 (US$ per MMBtu)

Figure 50 Oil price forecast, 2013 – 2030 (US$/barrel, real terms (2014 dollars))

Figure 51 Ammonia price forecast, 2015 – 2030 (US$ per tonne, real terms (2014 dollars))

Figure 52 Urea price forecast, 2015 – 2030 (US$ per tonne, real terms (2014 dollars))

Figure 53 AN price forecast, 2015 – 2030 (US$ per tonne, real terms (2014 dollars))

Figure 54 UAN price forecast, 2015 – 2030 (US$ per tonne, real (2014 dollars))

Spotlight Report: Industry Financials

Figure 1 Representative sample of global nitrogen revenues, 2010 – 2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 2 Representative sample of global nitrogen revenues, 2010 – 2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 3 Partial sample of global nitrogen revenues, 2010 – 2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 4 Representative sample of global nitrogen gross profits, 2010 – 2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 5 Partial sample of global nitrogen gross profits, 2010 – 2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 6 Representative sample of global nitrogen cost of sales, 2010 – 2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 7 Representative sample of global nitrogen gross margins, 2010 – 2014

Figure 8 Representative sample of global nitrogen gross margins, 2014

Figure 9 Representative sample of global nitrogen gross margins, 2014

Figure 10 Representative sample of global nitrogen gross margins, 2014

Figure 11 North American nitrogen revenues, 2010 – 2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 12 North American nitrogen gross profits, 2010 – 2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 13 North American nitrogen cost of sales, 2010 – 2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 14 North American nitrogen gross profit margins, 2010 – 2014

Figure 15 Partial sample of Chinese nitrogen revenues, 2010 – 2013 (US$ billion)

Figure 16 Representative sample of Chinese nitrogen revenues, 2010 – 2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 17 Representative sample of Chinese nitrogen gross profits, 2010 – 2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 18 Representative sample of Chinese nitrogen cost of sales, 2010 – 2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 19 Representative sample of Chinese nitrogen gross profit margins, 2010 – 2014

Figure 20 Partial sample of European nitrogen revenues, 2010 – 2013 (US$ billion)

Figure 21 Representative sample of European nitrogen revenues, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 22 Representative sample of European nitrogen gross profits, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 23 Representative sample of European nitrogen gross profit margins, 2010 – 2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 24 Representative sample of European nitrogen cost of sales, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 25 Partial sample of Russian & Ukrainian nitrogen revenues, 2010-2013 (US$ billion)

Figure 26 Representative sample of Russian & Ukrainian nitrogen revenues, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 27 Representative sample of Russian & Ukrainian cost of sales, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 28 Representative sample of Russian & Ukrainian gross profits, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 29 Representative sample of Russian & Ukrainian gross profit margins, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 30 MENA nitrogen revenues, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 31 MENA nitrogen gross profits, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 32 MENA nitrogen gross profit margins, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 33 MENA nitrogen cost of sales, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 34 Partial sample of Indian nitrogen revenues, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 35 Representative sample of Indian nitrogen revenues, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 36 Representative sample of Indian nitrogen gross profits, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 37 Representative sample of Indian nitrogen cost of sales, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 38 Representative sample of Indian nitrogen gross profit margins, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 39 Pakistani nitrogen revenues, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 40 Pakistani nitrogen gross profits, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 41 Pakistani nitrogen gross profit margins, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 42 Pakistani nitrogen cost of sales, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 43 South East Asian nitrogen revenues, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 44 Southeast Asian nitrogen cost of sales, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 45 Southeast Asian nitrogen gross profits, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

Figure 46 South East Asian nitrogen gross profit margins, 2010-2014 (US$ billion)

List of Tables

Quarterly Industry Analysis Nov 15

Table 1 Brent crude oil prices, 2015-2030 (US$/bbl)

Table 2 Marginal nitrogen producer feedstock cost, 2014 – 2030 (US$/MMBtu)

Table 3 Black Sea ammonia prices, 2015 – 2030 (US$/tonne)

Table 4 Black Sea urea prices, 2015 – 2030 (US$/tonne)

Table 5 Black Sea AN prices, 2015 – 2030 (US$/tonne)

Table 6 Black Sea UAN prices, 2015 – 2030 (US$/tonne)

Spotlight Report: Industry Financials

Table 1 Annual average nitrogen prices (US$/tonne)

Table 2 Annual average nitrogen gross profit margins (%)

Table 3 Nitrogen financials availability by company

Main Data File

Table 1 Benchmark ammonia prices (US$ per tonne)

Table 2 Benchmark urea prices (US$ per tonne)

Table 3 Benchmark AN and nitrates prices (US$ per tonne)

Table 4 Benchmark crop prices (US$ per tonne)

Table 5 Energy Prices

Table 6 Typical ammonia unit margins (US$ per tonne)

Table 7 Typical urea unit margins (US$ per tonne)

Table 8 Quarterly financials

Table 9 Floor price forecasts

Nitrogen projects database

Table 1 Nitrogen projects database

Spotlight Report 1 Industry Financials data file

Table 1 Global sample of nitrogen producer revenues, 2010-2014 (US$ million)

Table 2 Global sample of nitrogen producer cost of sales, 2010-2014 (US$ million)

Table 3 Global sample of nitrogen producer gross profits, 2010-2014 (US$ million)

Table 4 Global sample of nitrogen producer gross margin %, 2010-2014 (US$ million)

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