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Table of Contents

The India SCR & AdBlue® Forecast Service contains the following:

1. Executive summary

Summary of the key findings and conclusions from our research.

2. Economic Outlook

This will include a short-term GDP growth projection and key economic indicators for future growth

3. Fuel quality standard timeline

The timing of fuel quality standards is a necessary pre-cursor for the upcoming emissions legislation. This chapter will assess the scheduled timeline for ultra-low sulphur diesel (10 ppm) as well as assessing what steps have been taken to meet its nationwide deadline in 2020.

4. Medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles

These vehicles are estimated to consume approximately 40% of diesel consumed in India, equivalent to 30 million tonnes of diesel in 2016-17. This chapter outlines the aftertreatment strategies the main OEMs have adopted for BS-IV, as well as how this will change for BS-VI.

4.1 Market analysis
4.2 Emissions & CO2 legislation
4.3 Aftertreatment strategies by OEM

5. Light vehicles (<3.5 tonnes GVW, including two and three wheelers)

There were close to 22 million light vehicles sold in India in the last fiscal year (2016-17). It is important to understand how many of these are diesel consuming vehicles and how this is likely to change in future years, particularly with the introduction of SCR technology in 2020/21 to meet Bharat VI emission standards.

5.1 Market analysis
5.2 Emissions & CO2 legislation
5.3 Aftertreatment strategies by OEM

6. Non-road mobile machinery

There has been a surge in demand for non-road equipment with sales rising by 25% and 8% y-o-y in 2016 and 2017 respectively. The government wants to introduce Stage IV standards in 2021 and BS-V standards by April 2026. This section provides a comprehensive market analysis for the non-road equipment sector, details on upcoming legislation and an assessment of the major OEMs in the sector, including how they will meet Stage IV/V standards.

6.1 Market analysis
6.2 Emissions & CO2 legislation
6.3 Aftertreatment strategies by OEM

7. AdBlue® demand forecast

This chapter runs through the methodology for our AdBlue® demand forecast to 2027 adjusted for the informal AdBlue® market – including our forecasts for vehicle sales, SCR sales and SCR fleet by segment.

7.1 Methodology
7.2 AdBlue® demand forecast
7.3 Vehicle & SCR demand forecast
7.4 AdBlue® suppliers

8. AdBlue® supply, cost and pricing

The Indian AdBlue® market is in its infancy, but it is expected to grow dramatic from 2020. This chapter discusses how the supply chain will likely develop, as well as the pricing mechanism for AGU based on AGU premium and delivered costs. Equally, we discuss producer strategies for ten major AdBlue® producers as well as details on the major fuel retailers.

8.1 Supply chain overview
8.2 Automotive grade urea quality and costs
8.3 AdBlue® suppliers