More than 3 million commercial vehicles and 30 million diesel passenger cars and vans expected to be equipped with SCR by 2020Posted On: 24-01-2014 By: Jon Raeside
The implementation of Euro VI standards for medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles in 2013 prompted truck manufacturers to include the most advanced emissions control package yet seen in Europe: Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) aftertreatment and wall flow diesel particulate filters for all vehicle models, combined with Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) for some but not others – notably Iveco. The first SCR trucks were delivered in Europe in 2006, and even in a conservative scenario of slow economic growth, more than 3 million of these medium and heavy-duty vehicles are forecast to be in use by 2020. Integer’s projections take into account economic factors, typical annual mileage and scrappage rates, and technical details of Euro VI engines and SCR configuration.
Integer has also investigated market developments in the European diesel car and light-duty commercial vehicle markets, where SCR is also forecast to achieve widespread use in the next years. The upcoming Euro 6 emissions legislation will have a direct impact on these vehicle markets and, for the first time, will involve the use of SCR for NOx abatement for all but the smallest engines. Taking into account economic growth and costumer preference for diesel engines in passenger cars by country, Integer has provided several scenarios for the development of emissions control technologies in the diesel passenger car segment in Europe and can reveal that more than 24 million passenger cars and 6 million light-duty vehicles are likely to use SCR technology by 2020.
As a result, Integer predicts that cars and vans in Europe will require up to 150 million litres of AdBlue by 2017. However, consumption is likely to rise faster from 2018 onwards with the implementation of Euro 6c legislation, when additional SCR vehicles will enter the European market and the AdBlue consumption rates for existing SCR models are expected to grow in order to meet so-called “real world driving” emissions testing.
These forecasts are just part of the findings of Integer’s new European Diesel Emissions Control & AdBlue Market Study. The study is made up of three volumes, covering emissions control in medium and heavy-duty vehicles; aftertreatment forecasts in cars and vans; and the implications for the AdBlue market. The study is pertinent to vehicle manufacturers, tier suppliers of emissions control components, oil companies, and AdBlue producers, distributors and retailers.
“Euro 6 legislation will have a strong and direct impact on the car and van markets with changes such as new emission testing methods, stricter emission standards and the implementation of new aftertreatment options. We are convinced that SCR technology will become the main aftertreatment solution for NOx abatement in all vehicle types in much the same way as we have seen in trucks, buses and off-road equipment. This report provides an in-depth assessment of the extent of these changes, explains how they will impact the industry and forecasts vehicle sales, SCR and AdBlue consumption. There are strong reasons to believe that AdBlue consumption may hit 6 billion litres by 2025”, said Tim Cheyne, Director of Environment & Emissions at Integer Research.
Volume 1, ‘Euro VI Medium and Heavy-duty Commercial Vehicles’, covers the commercial vehicle market and discusses aftertreatment solutions and technical details of Euro VI engines. Volume 2, ‘Euro 6 Diesel Passenger Cars and Light-Duty Vehicles’, focuses on the current diesel passenger car market and diesel fuel supply in Europe, as well as the technologies available to vehicle manufacturers to meet the current and upcoming emission regulations. Both volumes present forecasts for vehicle sales growth, SCR parc and AdBlue consumption in Europe. Volume 3, ‘The European AdBlue Market’, goes into more detail covering AdBlue producers, distributors, retail infrastructure, and freight economic analysis. The report also analyses AdBlue price formation and forecast pricing for the available supply formats to 2030.