Moving up a gear – Europe’s evolving AdBlue® market gets Integer’s most rigorous analysis treatment yetPosted On: 05-09-2018 By: Alicia Bennett
By Fabricio Cardoso, Research Manager & Alex Wood, Analyst, Integer Research
The European AdBlue market has developed enormously since 2006 when we first began to analyse it. In the first years, the use of SCR was exclusive to the larger commercial vehicles, and truck manufacturers could choose between SCR or EGR to meet NOx standards. SCR would be beneficial in terms of fuel consumption, but brought the inconvenience of adding AdBlue, a urea solution which was, at the time, not available everywhere.
Fast-forward twelve years to today, and the situation is very different. There are over 100 production points across Europe, 500 distributors and fleet suppliers, and more than 8,500 locations distributing AdBlue at the pump. These companies, spread on the map, are supplying not only commercial vehicles (the totality of Euro VI diesel trucks and buses need AdBlue) but also a range of agricultural, construction and material handling machinery and, more recently, diesel passenger cars.
This widening range of AdBlue customers brought significant changes to the marketplace in terms of logistics, which plays an increasingly important role, and getting the best urea supply became a key contributor to success in this more competitive-than-ever environment.
As the market has changed, so has our approach to analysing it, because with rapid development comes the need for more rigorous and comprehensive evaluation. Our latest solution to uncovering vital trends, challenges and opportunities comes in the form of The European SCR & AdBlue Forecast Service, 2018/19 edition.
This new update looks at current AdBlue demand by segment, country and market channel. A key consideration is that packaged product became a suitable option for cars and vans, whereas the number of commercial vehicle fleets with dedicated storage tanks keeps growing, increasing the demand for bulk AdBlue.
The country analysis is another important consideration in this year’s edition. Up until last year, our models looked at sales of SCR-equipped trucks, buses, cars, vans and machinery in the EU to forecast AdBlue consumption based on the current European market size as a whole. But by regularly speaking to market players we noted that different markets were developing at different paces across the region. For instance, in Germany, the growth in the SCR fleet has been much smaller, as Euro IV sales were relatively high, and new truck sales have been replacing the first SCR-equipped trucks. In contrast, in Spain, sales of Euro IV and V trucks were very low due to the 2008 economic crisis, and current Euro VI, SCR-equipped trucks are primarily replacing older, non-SCR trucks.
These differences have led us to revamp our calculations and assess each country and segment separately, from vehicle sales to the share of alternative powertrain, from travelled distances to expected AdBlue dosing rates. We have been discussing and validating our results with key market players, and in doing so, have produced a report that we believe truly reflects the reality of AdBlue market dynamics across Europe.
For more information about The SCR & AdBlue Forecast Service and how this new edition could help you move forward faster in today’s European AdBlue market, please don’t hesitate to get in touch. Email firstname.lastname@example.org, or call us on +44 20 7503 1265 – we’d be happy to talk you through our research.