The Brazil Diesel Emissions & ARLA 32 Market Study builds from analysis of the fundamental principles of the diesel emissions and ARLA 32 industry, and culminates in a 2012 consumption estimate and forecast discussion.
Primary research is fundamental to the study and Integer has maintained a dialogue with all industry stakeholders throughout the research and writing process, verifying all information and data with the company or organisation in question. Our Portuguese speaking team has conducted telephone interviews with every major vehicle, urea and ARLA 32 manufacturer/producer, and also government and industry associations.
Integer provides all of the necessary background legislative and quality control requirements in this heavily regulated market, giving context to the current industry landscape. At the core of the ARLA 32 market are the technology choices made by truck manufacturers in meeting PROCONVE P7, and with this in mind an analysis of the medium and heavy-duty truck market, including production, sales, OEM strategy and industry partnerships is included. After outlining the emissions control technology choices of all manufacturers, Integer examines the next level of the ARLA 32 supply chain and gives detailed company profiles of each of the major players both in Brazil and internationally, including potential new entrants. This includes integrated and non-integrated producers, distributors, marketers and umbrella organisations with ARLA 32 strategy. Urea and ARLA 32 capacity and production in Brazil is also covered and the final forecast is evaluated against domestic capacity to measure the market share available for new entrants into the market. Initial indication of ARLA 32 pricing is explored, including underlying costs of urea in 2012.
In addition to the situation in Brazil one year into its ARLA 32 market, experiences from more developed markets in Europe and North America are assessed, including supply formats, distribution strategies and pricing amongst other factors. Integer applies its extensive research in these regions to compare and contrast the market conditions at each stage.
In exploring all of the factors above, Integer presents a consumption estimate for 2012, and a forecast up to 2018 based on further primary research into industry dynamics. Our ARLA 32 consumption model is based on specifically sourced empirical data and the framework has been proven and tested against real world data in Europe and North America for seven and three years respectively against real world data. In each year the model first takes Integer’s estimate of SCR truck registrations and applies to this average annual mileage, the ARLA 32 dosing rate, MPG and regional diesel consumption. The end result is a forecast which projects ARLA consumption at national and regional level, highlighting areas where ARLA 32 demand will be most significant, accompanied by low and high scenario forecasts. To conclude, an evaluation of how much of the forecast demand can be satisfied by current and forecast domestic capacity is also given.